New federal projections for Southern Nevada’s main water source were released Friday and paint an even more dismal picture amid a tight interstate negotiation over the future of the American West.

The Bureau of Reclamation estimated in its most probable scenario that Lake Mead, the nation’s largest reservoir, will fall to 1,036.5 feet above sea level in November 2027.

That’s about 5 feet lower than the level that the reservoir fell to in 2022, when experts sounded alarm bells about desperately needed conservation and solutions to the Colorado River’s overuse problem. It’s about 2 feet below the lowest level that forecasters predicted in November, as well.